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Product details
File Size: 848 KB
Print Length: 288 pages
Publisher: Random House; 1 edition (January 18, 2001)
Publication Date: January 18, 2001
Sold by: Random House LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B000FC1KZC
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It's now six years after the story, and still a lot of people, probably most people, don't understand LTCM. If anything, the memory is fading. I bought a copy of 'Genius' for my business collection, because it is now a classic. Andrew Tobias' and 'Adam Smith's' tails of speculation in the '60s/70s saved me from the internet bubble, and for that reason, it's important to have a copy of this book and read it. Because, have no doubt, we will go through this whole thing again. In your lifetime, probably sooner than later.Genius does fail, pretty regularly, especially in the investment arena. Index funds still out-perform most of the managed funds. And yet this week the managed funds were once again reporting net inflows. I see and hear lots of praise for Black-Scholes. Surf the web and you'll find it loaded with training courses on how to use it. Never do they come with any examination of it's potential problems.Our Caveat Emptor society comes with an obligation to be educated on this stuff. Read Genius Failed, read Random Walk, read Popular Delusions, read Liar's Poker, read The Money Game, read, read, read. Otherwise, well, Wall Street's an expensive place to get an education, and with the coming problems in Medicare, and Social Security, we're all going to be faced with managing our retirements. The uneducated will be as lambs led to slaughter.January 2008 update - Do you suppose Lowenstein is already at work on one on the mortgage bond mess. I did read a funny quote from the CEO of Wells Fargo to the effect that he saw no reason for the creation of new ways of destroying investment value when the old ones were already working so well. Funny, but at the same time I'm glad I'm broadly asset allocated and not concentrated in financials.November 2008 update - These guys have really run this idea into the ground. LTCM as a PRELIMINARY proof of concept of how to crater an economic system. It's no longer a slaughter of lambs. I do hope that Lowenstein is keeping notes, and am confident of a sequel.April 2010 update -He finally published his account on the mortgage bond mess. The usual quality though now he competes with Michael Lewis (yet another market moving to efficiency).April 2012 update - More than ever, people need to read this book. It was interesting, it was history, it was profound, and now the lack of comprehension on the part of the people of the U.S. is having a profound impact on its future. It's all here: Nothing was learned from LTCM, other than how to replicate the disaster. Muppets... Vampire Squids...
Roger Lowenstein’s book contains an extraordinary amount of detail. There’s nothing wrong with that.The gist of the story is that no amount of financial modelling can overcome a “black swan†event, even though the term “black swan†was not a known term at the time of these events.Fast forward from 1998 to 2008 and the term “black swan†has become a key piece of “financial lexicon†when considering what unforseen uncertainty might do to the value of financial assets and liabilities.With the benefit of hindsight, some of the geniuses at Long Term Capital Management might have considered financial modelling for a “black swan†event.The story is also one for detailing the shortcoming and weakness of human character. For example:• Hubris v humility;• Arrogance v meekness• Over confidence v modesty;• Pride v humility;• Condescension v respect;• Disdain v respect;• Contempt v admirationand so it goes on.A reader is somewhat reminded by the verse “as you shall sow, then so shall you reapâ€. Such an apt phrase seemingly applies throughout the book, but the one stand out is when management decides to fully redeem the capital of the outside investors, with a view to increasing management’s share of the pie, only to find that the geniuses at Long-Term Capital Management had failed to realise that by shafting these investors, they had (in the end) shafted themselves.
When Genius Failed was a great read. Lowenstein did a terrific job of introducing the reader to the quirky personalities at Long Term Capital and their interactions with Wall Street, European and Asian investment banks and the Fed. The real genius of the book was that Lowenstein nailed WHY genius failed. The same lessons the professors and traders at Long Term Capital failed to learn are the ones that all traders need to know. Trading in the financial markets is art as well as science. Knowing what quantitative models can and cannot do, and knowing when a model’s underlying assumptions are violated are key to successful trading. And finally, having the humility to accept that no matter how smart you are (or think you are) the financial markets can and will periodically make you look like an idiot.
This is a dramatic tale of one of the most impressive companies and hedge fund in history, Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) of Greenwich, Connecticut. A group of academics that used mathematical models of the past to predict future but failed because, “They had forgotten the human factor.â€This is a chilling harbinger as the crisis that would impact Wall Street ten years later. Roger Lowenstein provides a complex read, well organized, story of finance gone are due to hubris. In this narrative he reviews and defines many investment terms for the novice. Items as hedge fund, derivatives, efficient market hypothesis, repo-financing, IO’s & PO’s, swap and much about probabilities using dice as an illustrative example are put forth.Most striking is the view the reader obtains from a perch that Lowenstein provides into the New York Fed, Wall Street Banks and particularly the characters and relationships of Jon Corzine and Warren Buffet. This all happening and cloaked while the Clinton Lewinsky scandal was unraveling. The drama almost bought down the world markets.Arrogance and hubris strikes again, shades of Enron
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